Let's set the table.
|Year||Record||SEC record||Season result|
|2016-17||24-7||14-4 (2nd)||4 seed, Elite 8|
|2017-18||20-11||11-7 (3rd)||6 seed, Round of 32|
|2018-19||17-14||9-9 (8th)||10 seed, Round of 32|
|2019-20||19-12||11-7 (5th)||Postseason cancelled|
|2020-21||15-10||9-7 (5th)||7 seed, Round of 32 (lost to 15-seed Oral Roberts)|
|AVERAGE||18-11||10-7 (5th)||7 seed|
If you just take the average (and I would be fine with mostly ignoring the first season, when he was just getting his feet wet in his first big-time job), things look decent. Both 2016-17 and 2017-18 were fine. 2nd & 3rd in the conference, respectively. I'm not throwing parties, but those are perfectly fine seasons. '16-'17 was better than fine, with a nice tournament run, featuring a Chris Chiozza buzzer-beater to get us to the Elite 8.
But there is another factor here, especially as a guy who plunks down a bunch of money and drives to the arena for every home game.
There are some very bad losses in there. And I haven't even mentioned the bad losses away from home (and there are more than a few).
So let's look at the overall trends over the past 4+ seasons.
This is not an open-and-shut case. Mike White is clearly not a bad coach. He took over a program coming off a sub-.500 season, and had it back in the NCAA tournament on a regular basis. But at the same time, there's clearly been program regression & a disturbing number of bad losses, especially at home. And after 6 seasons, no "banners" -- SEC titles or appearances in national semis.
I can best sum it up with this graphic:
Some people will say 4 straight tournament appearances is better than "OK." And they'd be right ... for a program like Rutgers or USF. Mike White is a good coach. But is he a great one? Because I think UF can and should have a great basketball coach. No, we won't get Roy Williams or Coach K. But I submit to you that there's a decent-sized gap between Coach K and Mike White. I could name more than a few coaches in that gap, and that's the type of coach UF should have.
To be clear: I hope I am wrong. But for me, the Mike White ship has sailed. I don't think he's the guy for this program and it's my belief that he won't be here for more than another season or 2. I just think we've seen the Mike White show enough to know what it is, and what it isn't. Inconsistency, home losses, but juuuuuust good enough to get into the 68-team NCAA tournament.